Thursday, September 11, 2025

UPDATED: Large coronal hole is crossing solar central meridian - when we will see a geomagnetic storm?


 A large coronal hole that was described earlier  is now crossing solar central meridian. High-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) originating in coronal holes may have velocities as high as 800 km/s, and reach Earth in about 2 days. Disturbance storm time (Dst) index is used to measure the impact of solar activity on Earth environment. A moderate geomagnetic storm has Dst index between -50 nT and -100 nT. Dst can be predicted from the magnetic field (polarity) associated with the coronal hole and the velocity of HSS. The later could be estimated from area of CH. Using this approach (see Nitti et al, 2023, doi: 10.1093/mnras/stac3533) one could expect to see a moderate-strength geomagnetic storm associated with this CH in about 2-3 days. Negative polarity magnetic field associated with this CH measured by GONG suggests stronger geomagnetic storm as compared with positive polarity field. Let's wait and see ... 

UPDATED on 14 Sep 2025: 

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model of solar wind predicts Earth entering HSS originating from this CH on about 14 Sep 2025, and reaching its middle point on 16 Sept 2025.  A snap-shot of  NOAA's WSA–Enlil model on the right shows predicted plasma density (top) and radial velocity (bottom) across the inner solar system. The sun is at the center (yellow), Earth is green, and STEREO A is red. As an input parameter, WSA-Enlil uses GONG magnetograms. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

It seems, the geomagnetic storms associated with this CH is now in development.  

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